Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 34.501885 37.216987 40.172752 43.653565 47.672440 52.206893 57.768475
2025-06-15 31.319127 35.097709 39.496388 45.087849 52.149376 60.984832 73.254882
2025-06-22 28.727532 32.949568 38.074026 44.922069 54.124590 66.555421 85.637494
2025-06-29 26.580543 30.989161 36.502201 44.146858 54.922676 70.410139 96.344878
2025-07-06 24.671731 29.106039 34.773788 42.854060 54.673239 72.531709 104.748370
2025-07-13 24.031590 28.764998 34.981270 44.161187 58.255285 81.057597 126.917739
2025-07-20 23.349632 28.292617 34.935954 45.053305 61.281895 89.295319 152.290585
2025-07-27 22.643267 27.722044 34.684060 45.575567 63.747595 97.087214 181.103840
2025-08-03 21.783047 26.876381 33.963290 45.281608 64.761092 102.330971 207.057484
2025-08-10 20.846127 25.866665 32.929423 44.384365 64.570029 105.059976 227.898694
2025-08-17 19.996046 24.934455 31.948630 43.480616 64.237031 107.404393 249.675857
2025-08-24 19.309241 24.200671 31.217469 42.919151 64.460344 111.062384 280.198138
2025-08-31 18.504278 23.278556 30.177681 41.805737 63.578320 112.141591 302.982554
2025-09-07 18.347366 23.289147 30.557950 43.131354 67.696558 127.016906 420.715277
2025-09-14 17.860557 22.788898 30.112925 42.977389 68.765372 134.246516 518.141832
2025-09-21 17.284540 22.131074 29.383901 42.257391 68.527873 137.675810 601.708446
2025-09-28 16.642425 21.350811 28.424656 41.055285 67.095003 137.091649 648.814500
2025-10-05 16.551900 21.393956 28.778756 42.270704 71.226820 156.037178 1098.270509
2025-10-12 16.384327 21.310694 28.920141 43.099216 74.628091 174.691306 2115.210460
2025-10-19 16.158715 21.127585 28.884936 43.583862 77.292859 192.466187 5387.322066
2025-10-26 15.806351 20.734365 28.479392 43.311110 78.006178 202.571731 17761.899982
2025-11-02 15.372232 20.199837 27.814026 42.478047 77.151129 205.117360 92385.213219
2025-11-09 14.958046 19.685118 27.163762 41.638104 76.187029 206.879998 NaN